9.05.2008

U.S. and Russian Nukes Get Sophisticated as Numbers Dwindle 

As Russia's actions in Georgia strain America's relationship with Russia, a report in the Wall Street Journaltoday indicates that nuclear disarmament negotiations may be in jeopardy. And while both countries' arsenals are shrinking, new and improved nuclear weapons are here to stay.
Published on: September 3, 2008 
 

Arms control efforts may become a casualty as the Russian invasion of Georgia deepens mistrust between the United States and Russia. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) expires at the end of 2009, and the first talks on its renewal were scheduled to begin this month. However, Secretary Condoleezza Rice agreeing with a statement from NATO explaining that relations with Russia could no longer be "business as usual" has spurred a debate over START's renewal. With the White House asserting that the relationship between the two nations needs to be evaluated, the SMART talks could be delayed, or even cancelled. While both U.S. presidential candidates count support for a new framework for START among their high-tech proposals, this sour mood is likely to extend beyond the Bush administration's term. 

The good news is that there are far fewer nuclear warheads in both nations' arsenals. During the Cold War the Soviet Union and the U.S. obsessed over counting warheads as a metric for national security. Since the dissolution of the communist government, the number of warheads on both sides has steadily declined from the U.S. high of 31,700 warheads in 1966 and Russia's 45,000 in 1986. The U.S. currently has about 5400, while Russia has about 5200, according to tallies by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (see graphic above). 

However, the Russians are developing new missiles that can carry multiple warheads, each of which can be programmed to strike individual targets. Russia's rhetoric has been increasingly bellicose, with direct threats to use nuclear weapons on Poland. However, the tough talk preceded the crisis in Georgia. "Military potential, to say nothing of nuclear potential, must be at the proper level if we want ...to stay independent," said First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov last December. "The weak are not loved and not heard, they are insulted, and when we have parity they will talk to us in a different way." 

The U.S. has not been idle. Although nuclear readiness has become an issue, with nuclear weapons inadvertently flown over the continental U.S., the arsenal is being upgraded on land and at sea. At the end of last year, the Pentagon announced it was resuming the construction of warheads for the first time since 1992. The U.S. is also upgrading its ICBMs and submarine-launched missiles. "While the arms race may be over, a capability race is clearly in full swing," says Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C. "Both [Russia and the U.S.] are modernizing and show no intention of moving toward actual disarmament, meaning elimination."